Population growth and unemployment rate in Uganda (1991-2019)
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Date
2022-04
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Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between population growth and the unemployment rate in Uganda from 1991-2019. It was driven by two specific objectives, which are to determine the short-run relationship between population growth the and unemployment rate in Uganda from 1991-2019. And to examine the long-run relationship between population growth and the unemployment rate in Uganda from 1991-2019. Time series data for Uganda covering the period from 1991-2019 was used for the analysis. The data was obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI). The employed variables in the study were: Unemployment rate (dependent variable), population growth rate, Gross domestic product, Foreign direct investment, Inflation rate, and Exchange rate. The Johansen Co-integration test was used to determine the long-run relationships, while the Error correction model was used to determine the short-run relationships between population growth and unemployment rate. ADF unit root test was used to establish the order of integration of the variables. The results of the study revealed that there was a long-run and short run relationship between population growth and unemployment. Furthermore, the estimated coefficient of population growth was 1.4287. This means that when one percent increase in population growth leads unemployment rate to rise by 1.4287%. The study recommended that to reduce acute unemployment in the country, the Government should ensure there is job creation, especially in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Private sector employers should be given subsidies to encourage them to employ more people. Family planning also should be highly emphasized and encouraged, the government could as well implement a child policy just like China, probably a 4-child policy. Such population control policy will ensure that population matches the available jobs.
Description
A research thesis submitted to the College of Economics and Management in partial Fulfillment of the requirements for award of Master in economics of Kampala International University
Keywords
Population growth, Unemployment rate, Uganda